The "joy" of photovoltaics is expected to last for a whole year!

In 2022, under the strong global market demand, the development of my country's photovoltaic industry is booming, and relevant companies have released performance pre-announcement "transcripts".

The reporter sorted out the annual performance forecasts of several photovoltaic listed companies and found that more than 70% of the companies have achieved profitability. Among them, the performance of silicon materials and silicon wafers has skyrocketed, and a small number of companies in the battery and module sectors have suffered losses, but the overall performance is on the rise.

According to Wang Jian, Director of the New Energy Department of TrendForce, in 2022, the supply of silicon materials will continue to exceed demand, and the price will rise all the way, capturing most of the profits in the photovoltaic industry chain; Relatively impressive; cells are in the middle link, affected by upstream silicon wafers and downstream components, the bargaining power is weak, and profit margins are gradually compressed, but at the end of 2022, affected by the tight supply of cells, cell profits will gradually recover; the component segment is affected by continued high demand Influenced by the increase, revenue continued to hit new highs.

Upstream performance rises, silicon materials companies are the best

The photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain is mainly divided into four links: silicon materials, silicon wafers, cells and modules. In 2022, benefiting from the continuous rise in the price of silicon materials and the rapid growth of downstream demand, the performance of silicon materials companies will grow strongly, becoming the most "gold-absorbing" link in the photovoltaic industry chain.

The data shows that many polysilicon companies are expected to double their performance in 2022, and some companies will increase more than twice.

Tongwei expects to achieve a net profit of 25.2 billion to 27.2 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 207% to 231%; Daquan Energy announced that the net profit in 2022 is expected to be 19 billion to 19.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231.94% to 235.44 %; Xinte Energy expects its net profit to be no less than 13 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of more than 1.6 times.

As for the reasons for the sharp increase in performance, all polysilicon manufacturers point to the simultaneous increase in the volume and price of polysilicon materials without exception.

Tongwei said that benefiting from the sustained and rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for high-purity crystalline silicon will be strong in 2022. The company's high-purity crystalline silicon production line continued to operate at full capacity, various production indicators were further optimized, new projects were quickly put into production and reached production capacity, and production and profits achieved a substantial increase year-on-year.

Daqo Energy said that the overall global demand for photovoltaic products remains strong. The expansion of production in other links of the photovoltaic industry is accelerating, and the overall supply of high-purity polysilicon materials is still in short supply, causing the price of silicon materials to continue to rise. The effect of the company's early production expansion strategy was gradually reflected during the reporting period. During the reporting period, the company continued to produce at full capacity, and both production and sales volume increased compared with the same period last year. Therefore, the main business income and gross profit increased significantly, achieving a significant growth in performance.

Although the profit growth rate of silicon wafer enterprises is not as strong as that of silicon material enterprises, it also maintains a high degree of prosperity.

TCL Zhonghuan is expected to increase its net profit by 63.79% to 76.20% in 2022, reaching 6.6 billion to 7.1 billion yuan under the circumstances of accelerated production capacity improvement, product structure optimization and upgrading, and continuous improvement of production and manufacturing efficiency; LONGi Green Energy benefits from silicon wafers and The volume and price of module sales are rising, and the net profit in 2022 is expected to be 14.5 billion to 15.5 billion yuan, an increase of 60% to 71% year-on-year; It is generally recognized that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 950 million to 1.05 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 206.32% to 238.57%.

The high prosperity in the upstream link has also boosted the profit growth of photovoltaic equipment companies. For example, Gaoce shares benefited from the strong market demand, and the sales of silicon wafer cutting equipment increased rapidly. The company's annual net profit is expected to be 760 million to 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.09% to 374.83%, temporarily ranking first in the annual report forecast net profit growth of listed photovoltaic companies.

Cells and modules usher in profit restoration

In 2022, as raw material prices continue to rise, both cell and module companies will be under pressure, but this situation has improved significantly compared to 2021, and most companies have achieved gratifying increases in performance.

JA Solar is expected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135.45% to 174.69%; Trina Solar is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.422 billion to 4.018 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.69% to 122.68%; JinkoSolar Net profit is expected to be 2.66 billion to 2.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133.05% to 159.33%.

Aixu, Yijing Optoelectronics, and Junda have turned losses into profits. Aixu is expected to have a net profit of 2.11 billion to 2.51 billion yuan in 2022. In 2021, Aiko's cell shipments will rank second in the world, but due to multiple factors such as tight supply of silicon materials and rising prices of silicon wafers, the net profit loss will be 126 million yuan. Regarding turning losses into profits, Aixu said that in 2022, the global new energy industry will develop rapidly, the photovoltaic industry will achieve rapid development, the market demand for solar cells will grow rapidly, and the sales price of products in the market will continue to rise. Significant growth in operating income.

Yijing Optoelectronics has lost money for three consecutive years from 2019 to 2021, but it is expected to achieve a net profit of 125 million to 150 million yuan in 2022. Yijing Optoelectronics said that the main reason for turning losses into profits is that the company adheres to the sales strategy of both domestic and international markets, and the sales volume and gross profit margin of solar modules have increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year.

In this regard, Wang Jian told the reporter of "China Electronics News" that the rapid development of the global photovoltaic industry in 2022 will drive the demand for solar cells to increase. While actively exploring the market, companies are also continuing to strengthen the layout of the supply chain, flexibly adjust procurement and management strategies in response to changes in the industrial chain, actively eliminate backward production capacity, continue to reduce product costs, seize the opportunity of N-type technology, and launch related products. New technology dividends are emerging.

However, unlike first-line battery and module manufacturers, small and medium-sized enterprises with limited overseas orders are less able to withstand the pressure of upstream price increases, and some companies have suffered losses in performance.

Aikang Technology expects net profit to be negative. The company said that although the company's orders and sales have increased significantly, the prices of upstream raw materials such as silicon materials and batteries have continued to rise and remain high. The company's new orders cannot predict the impact of raw material price fluctuations in advance, resulting in sales prices of some of the company's orders. The inversion of cost and cost has seriously affected the gross profit of the company's product orders, causing the company to form an operating loss.

Jiangsu Zhongli expects a full-year loss of 758 million to 983 million yuan in 2022. The reasons include the shortage of silicon materials, the main raw material for photovoltaic cells and modules, and the average price increase of about 26% compared with the same period last year, resulting in the purchase of orders signed and fulfilled by the company in the early stage. Costs increase and gross margins decrease. However, compared with the net loss of 3.866 billion yuan in 2021, Jiangsu Zhongli's loss in 2022 has been greatly reduced.

Inverter companies generally have high growth

Against the backdrop of a positive industry, the trend of "solar-storage integration" has also led to a substantial increase in the profits of many inverter companies. According to the statistics of Orient Securities Research Report, as of the end of 2022, there are 10 listed inverter companies included in the main business of A-share listed companies. The reporter combed and found that among these 10 companies, except for the 3 companies that have not issued a notice and TBEA, the leader in silicon materials, the net profits of the remaining 6 companies have all ushered in double growth.

Sungrow expects to achieve revenue of 39 billion to 42 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 62% to 74%; net profit of 3.2 billion to 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102% to 140%. In 2022, Yuneng Technology is expected to achieve a net profit of 340 million to 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 230% to 269%. Deye shares expect net profit to increase by 151% to 168% year-on-year.

"The global market has a huge room for growth" has become the main reason for the explosion of inverter business performance. Sunshine Energy stated that under the background of the rapid growth of the global new energy market, the company seized the opportunity, continued to strengthen R&D and innovation, deepened the global market, and continued to increase its global brand influence. Yueng Technology said that during the reporting period, distributed photovoltaic power generation around the world showed continuous high growth expectations. On this basis, the company insisted on developing global business layout and actively explored domestic and foreign markets, which led to relatively high performance in this period. Significant growth in the previous year.

According to Zhang Zhihan, a battery analyst at GF Securities, the surge in performance of inverter companies is due to the explosion of overseas demand. The growth rate of market demand is greater than that of supply, and the industry's volume and price have risen, which has led to a surge in profitability. She predicts that, benefiting from the outbreak of the global photovoltaic distributed and centralized installed capacity market, the photovoltaic inverter market will continue to grow in 2023.

Industry prosperity is expected to continue

With the increase in supply, silicon materials will usher in a price reduction cycle in 2023. The industry generally believes that with the cost reduction of the industrial chain brought about by the upstream price drop, the demand for photovoltaic installations may explode, and the industry's prosperity is expected to continue.

Fang Gang, Senior Manager of LONGi Green Energy Centralized Business Center, predicted that the global installed capacity is expected to exceed 400GW in 2023. Song Hao, assistant vice president of GCL Technology, said that in 2023, my country's photovoltaic industry may usher in an era of newly installed capacity of 100 gigawatts.

Recently, a number of photovoltaic companies have also intensively released production expansion plans, showing their optimism about market demand.

Daqo Energy plans to build a 200,000-ton polysilicon project in 2023; LONGi Green Energy has invested in a 100GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project and a 50GW monocrystalline cell project in Shaanxi; JA Solar plans to build a full photovoltaic industry in Ordos chain low-carbon industrial park project.

Wang Jian predicted that in 2023, the profits of all links in the photovoltaic industry chain will usher in a process of redistribution. Due to the continuous release of silicon material production capacity, the supply of silicon materials is sufficient, and the profit level will return to a reasonable level; the competition pattern of silicon wafers will intensify, and profits may decline slightly; the profit of battery chips will be greatly restored, and the new technology dividends of battery chips will be released at an accelerated rate. The tight supply of large-size P-type cells will also increase the profits of the cell segment; under the stimulation of demand, the profits of module companies are expected to continue to recover.