Rumors that orders have been suspended, and many Chinese energy storage companies deny it!

According to China Energy News on October 18 , “Affected by the shortage of batteries, some energy storage companies have suspended orders. Since the end of September, the battery supply has continued to be in short supply, and the situation of companies suspending orders is quite common and the situation is getting worse. .It has attracted widespread attention in the industry! However, on October 19, China Fund News reporter interviewed a number of energy storage equipment listed companies in the past two days, and there are many leading players in the track. Among them, listed companies said that "forced to suspend orders" is not Common problems in the industry may only be individual cases in the industry. The above companies all said that the current upstream and downstream supply is normal.
On the same day, Flush Finance reported that the secretary of the board of directors of a listed company in East China for energy storage equipment said. "At present, this kind of supply is tight. It can basically be reflected in the cost, but it does not suspend orders for downstream customers,” said the above-mentioned person. A person
from a listed company in Shenzhen whose main business involves energy storage also said that the current production line of the company can meet customer orders and market demand. "The so-called suspension of orders may only be an individual phenomenon in the industry ," the person said. However, he also said that the company's production capacity is currently in a state of full production capacity, and the energy storage expansion plan will be considered in the later stage, but the details will depend on this year and next year. Market and customer demand.
But it is worth noting that due to the resonance of global demand, it is an indisputable fact that the downstream demand for energy storage is hot. The agency predicts that this will directly promote the demand for lithium batteries, but with the industrialization of sodium batteries and vanadium batteries, this -Supply landscape will change dramatically. Anxiety focuses on lithium battery supply

In fact, the industry's anxiety about the "stop order" of energy storage is more due to the supply of lithium-ion batteries. Due to the first to achieve industrialization, lithium-ion batteries occupy a mainstream position in the energy storage track.

According to Zhongguancun energy storage data, in 2021, lithium-ion batteries will account for 89.7% of the market share of China's new energy storage capacity. They are the most representative new energy storage technology and are currently widely used in 1-2 hours of medium and short-term energy storage scenarios. It is also used in energy storage projects of 4-8 hours.

In the view of the aforementioned listed companies, the price of lithium carbonate has remained high for a long time due to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles.

According to the high-tech lithium battery data, the global energy storage lithium battery shipments will be 70GWh in 2021, an increase of 159%, and the lithium iron phosphate route will account for more than 50%. It is expected that the global energy storage lithium battery lithium iron phosphate route will account for more than 70% in 2025. Above; in 2021, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments will be 48GWh, and the lithium iron phosphate route will account for about 98.5%.

As of September 2022, the national power and energy storage battery base capacity planning has exceeded 5,000GWh (including power batteries exceeding 4,800GWh) ; according to the current battery cell price, the full capacity planning can generate revenue of 4 trillion yuan (about 900 million yuan). /GWh), about 96 million vehicles can be loaded (1GWh can be loaded with 20,000 vehicles).

China's domestic market demand continues to be strong

The domestic large-scale energy storage bidding has exceeded 40GWh, and the policy side is expected to introduce a capacity electricity price policy before the end of the year.

Recently, a number of institutions have released bidding and demand data for the energy storage industry. Among them, the domestic market demand continues to be strong. According to data from Zhongtai Securities, 36 domestic new energy storage projects opened bids in September, with a total capacity of 6.05GWh, a total power of 2.63GW, and an average winning unit price of 2.11 yuan/Wh; 44 new energy storage projects in the same period Bidding, with a total scale of 12.59GWh. The report of Soochow Securities on October 16 pointed out that the domestic large-scale energy storage bidding has exceeded 40GWh this year, and the policy side is expected to introduce a capacity electricity price policy before the end of the year.

In addition, in various parts of my country, the list of energy storage demonstration projects has also been released. According to the statistics of Polaris Energy Storage Network on October 14, 167 energy storage demonstration projects have been announced in eight provinces including Guangxi, Hunan and Shandong during the year, and the disclosed energy storage scale is about 12.9GW and 20.3GWh.

In general, Zheshang Securities reported on October 17 that the new domestic demand for energy storage from 2022 to 2025 will be about 179GWh.

It is worth noting that, judging from the bidding situation, analysts pointed out that the pace of independent energy storage projects entering into substantive progress has accelerated significantly in the second half of the year. The scale of independent energy storage in September exceeded that of new energy allocation and storage. Look at this trend is still maintained.

"The shortage of energy storage batteries is foreseeable. In the first half of the year, due to the cost consideration of upstream raw materials and battery cell prices, some new energy projects delayed the construction pace. In the fourth quarter, in order to complete the grid connection requirements at the end of the year, we had to Focus on buying batteries. Some manufacturers are indeed out of stock. Even if they have stock, the quantity is very limited, and there is a situation of 'the higher price wins'." said Liu Mingyi, director of the Energy Storage Technology Department of Huaneng Clean Technology Research Institute.

Rapid growth of new energy vehicles

Global demand for EV batteries to exceed 3500GWh by 2030

Behind the "battery shortage" is the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. Last year, the shortage of batteries in the field of new energy vehicles was evident from the collective delay in delivery of car companies, and the management of car companies stayed at the battery manufacturers for a week in order to get batteries smoothly. With the widespread popularity of electric vehicles, car manufacturers have accelerated the launch of new electric vehicles, and the demand for batteries, a key component, has also increased significantly. Battery manufacturers such as CATL and LG New Energy have also continued to increase production capacity to meet demand. Research institutions predict that with the introduction of timetables for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles in many countries and the introduction of more electric vehicles by automakers, the global demand for electric vehicle batteries will exceed 3,500GWh in 2030. According to the data given by research institutions, the demand for electric vehicle batteries in 2030 will exceed 3500GWh, which is more than 10 times the current demand. This year, the global demand for electric vehicle batteries is about 340GWh. Overseas demand blowout European and American markets are also continuing to contribute to increased demand

In the European market, electricity prices and natural gas prices have dropped to a certain extent recently, but a report from Soochow Securities on October 16 pointed out that European household storage is still very economical, and European household electricity prices are expected to increase significantly in 2023. European households Storage orders have generally been placed in April next year.

In the US market, data show that in the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of energy storage was 2.125GW and 5.843GWh, a year-on-year increase of 239% and 173%. As of the end of August, the number of energy storage records reached 23GW, and the ITC extension of ten years was the first time to clarify that independent energy storage will be granted credits.

The "capacity expansion" of the power battery industry continues. Since 2021, a number of power battery companies, including CATL, BYD, Honeycomb Energy, AVIC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Funeng Technology, have announced that they will build new lithium battery projects and expand their production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, only the top power battery companies announced that the new production capacity in the next five years will exceed 2,000GWh, which is about 20 times the installed capacity this year. There is a more critical factor behind the "crazy expansion", that is, the local government is keen to introduce lithium battery projects. Judging from the current situation, all local governments are more active in introducing power battery projects, especially those of high-quality enterprises. The prospects of these high-quality enterprises are indeed optimistic by the outside world, and they may bring good tax and employment prospects to the local government in the future.