On December 28, Sinopec officially released the "China Energy Outlook 2060" in Beijing. This is the first time that Sinopec publicly released the results related to the medium and long-term energy outlook. Research results show that China's primary energy consumption is expected to peak in 2030-2035, with a peak value of about 6.03 billion tons of standard coal, and drop to about 5.6 billion tons of standard coal in 2060. It is estimated that China's carbon emissions related to energy activities will peak before 2030 , after excluding the carbon sequestration part of raw material energy consumption, the peak value is about 9.9 billion tons, which will drop to 1.7 billion tons in 2060, and carbon neutrality will be achieved through CCUS and carbon sinks. The research results provide new ideas, new perspectives, and new methods for the scientific planning of the future development of my country's energy industry.
"China Energy Outlook 2060" pointed out that under the coordinated development scenario of China's energy transformation, the development of natural gas will experience a period of steady growth, a period of carbon peaking, a period of steady peaking and a period of steady decline. It is estimated that in 2025, the demand for natural gas will be 430 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 5%; in 2030, the demand for natural gas will be 519 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 4%; in 2040, the demand for natural gas will be 615.5 billion cubic meters, with an average annual growth rate of 1.7 %, natural gas consumption reaches its peak. After 2040, natural gas will be replaced by electricity and hydrogen.
With the technological progress of photovoltaic power generation, the improvement of system efficiency, the reduction of cost, and the improvement of power grid consumption capacity, photovoltaic will go through the stage of accelerated deployment and the stage of comprehensive development. Around 2040, it will become the largest power source.
"China Energy Outlook 2060" is an important research achievement of Sinopec Research Institute of Economics and Technology. Starting from the analysis of the historical relationship between energy consumption and economic, social and industrial development, the book analyzes the historical laws of energy development and the key factors affecting energy transformation from four aspects: economic development, social evolution, technological progress, and policy guidance, and studies and judges the main influences. Based on the development trend of factors and the development process of energy transformation, the concept system of "energy balance triangle" is proposed, and based on the dynamic balance of energy triangle, looking forward to the path of my country's energy transformation, and constructing three energy transformations of security challenges, green urgency, and coordinated development development scenario. Based on model prediction and comprehensive analysis, the forecasts of total energy consumption and carbon emissions in each main stage, the forecast of primary energy consumption by variety, and the consumption of energy varieties by key end-use energy sectors are respectively given from now to 2060 in my country. Trend judgment.
At the meeting, Ren Jingdong, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, explained the connotation of building a new energy system from four aspects, and proposed that realizing energy security and stability and ensuring the smooth operation of the economy and society are the primary tasks, realizing green and low-carbon energy, and promoting fossil energy and renewable energy. Integrated development is the only way to go. It is an important mission to achieve energy efficiency and build an energy power. It is a common responsibility to achieve a high level of opening up in the energy field and open up a new situation of energy cooperation and win-win. "China Energy Outlook 2060" will provide important references for relevant departments, enterprises and institutions to carry out energy work and help the development of the energy industry.
Zhao Dong, general manager of Sinopec, said that "China Energy Outlook 2060" is the latest achievement of Sinopec in exploring how to take the road of high-quality energy development with Chinese characteristics. Systematic judgment of energy development trends. Sinopec is willing to work with all parties to strengthen academic exchanges, deepen all-round cooperation, jointly promote more high-level and high-quality energy research results and energy development achievements, and work together to speed up the planning and construction of a new energy system and protect the country. Contribute to energy security.
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